The CyclOpe institute announces a 2025 marked by a significant decline of 6% in the commodity index. This gloomy trend is exacerbated by weak Chinese demand and global economic uncertainties. Although some sectors, such as natural gas and aluminum, may experience a rise, the majority of markets, including oil, iron, and rice, remain depressed.
Cocoa and Gold: Rising Stars
The price of cocoa skyrocketed by 126% in 2024 due to weather phenomena and diseases. Similarly, gold shows an increase of 23%, illustrating global uncertainties. The forecasts from CyclOpe emphasize the importance of geopolitical factors, particularly with the election of Donald Trump, which weigh on the global outlook for commodities.
Hydrocarbons: An Uncertain Market
Oil is expected to experience an average decline of 12%, with a barrel of Brent projected at 70 dollars. The production of black gold is increasing, but Chinese demand is waning, making forecasts for this sector even more difficult. The Trump factor continues to generate uncertainties that will influence investment decisions in 2025.
Economic Outlook for 2025: A Decline in Commodities
The forecasts for 2025 present a concerning picture of the commodity markets. After a stagnant 2024, the trend shows a retreat, with a projected decline of 6% in indices. Affected sectors include oil, iron, and rice, all impacted by weak demand from China and geopolitical uncertainties. The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States in 2025 introduces additional risk factors that weigh on global economic decisions.
While some materials like natural gas, aluminum, or corn may see an increase due to specific dynamics, the bulk of the markets tends toward depression. Major players like China, traditionally drivers of prices, are experiencing a slowdown that increases pressure on commodities. The gloomy economic situation, coupled with a lack of political stability internationally, encourages heightened caution among investors.
Scarcity and Volatility: Challenges for Metals and Agriculture
The metal market is not exempt from the difficulties faced in 2025. Essential products like tin, driven by demand in electronics, show signs of resilience. However, others, such as copper and nickel, continue to see their prices depressed. The growing impact of China’s decisions regarding export restrictions is exacerbating this trend.
In agriculture, cocoa is experiencing an unexpected surge in prices (+126%), influenced by unfavorable weather conditions. Meanwhile, some agricultural products like wheat and corn may see a slight price increase, while others, such as rice and soybeans, are expected to face a significant drop. Agricultural markets are thus subject to great volatility, resulting from local dynamics and climatic conditions.
The Shadow of Donald Trump and Geopolitical Uncertainty
The Trump effect generates a significant geopolitical uncertainty. While natural gas is expected to be slightly more expensive, thanks to local price protections against European prices, oil and coal do not observe this upward trend. A paradoxical scenario unfolds: although the former Trump administration advocated for an increase in domestic energy production, low prices discourage extraction.
It is also crucial to monitor the strategic choices of OPEC+ and the potential lifting of sanctions against Russia following a hypothetical peace agreement with Ukraine. Such events could drastically influence the price of the Brent barrel, subject to significant fluctuations in response to international political signals. The future of commodities in 2025 remains contingent on these uncertainties, creating a situation that is not conducive to a rapid stabilization of markets.
